datapolicymexicoopen-source

Numoru Analytics · April 2026

Velocity and acceleration across fifteen Mexican presidencies

Quantitative evaluation of Mexico's 15 presidential administrations (1934–2024). Nine variables, verifiable primary sources, contextualized against LatAm-5.

presidencies

years

variables

datasets

SourcesINEGICONEVALOECDBanxicoFMIMaddisonWorld BankCEPALUNODC

Executive Summary

Eight findings that summarize nine decades of Mexican structural acceleration, from Cárdenas to AMLO.

Central principle. This report evaluates presidents by velocity and acceleration of change, not absolute levels. A leader who inherits 50% poverty and lowers it to 45% (vel.=−1 pp/year) is rated higher than one who inherits 30% and lowers it to 28% (vel.=−0.33 pp/year). Inherited structural context is always discounted via the IDC.

The long poverty cycle (1940–2024)

From 80% (Cárdenas) to 29.6% (AMLO): 50 points in 84 years. Continuous decline 1940–1976, reversal during De la Madrid (+7pp after the 1982 crisis), neoliberal stagnation 1988–2018, and final acceleration 2018–2024 (−2.05 pp/year, highest in the CONEVAL series).

The miracle and its collapse (1940–1982)

Seven consecutive sexenios with GDP > 5.8%. Post-1982 no president exceeds 4%. Stabilizing development + ISI = an unrepeated historical exception.

The 1982 fracture

GDP 0.1% annually — the worst sexenio since 1934. TFP −1.7 (historic low). Combination of inherited crisis under López Portillo + Volcker shock + orthodox adjustment.

The violence arc (1940–2024)

Secular decline from 40 to 11 homicides/100k (Cárdenas→Fox, −72% over 66 years). Structural break under Calderón 2006–2012 (+100%). Inertia 2.8× — the stickiest variable in the model.

Inheriting vs. handing over crises

Three documented terminal crises: Echeverría −8%, López Portillo −15%, Salinas −20%. Retroactive penalty symmetrical to the issuing president.

Establishment alignment (IAE)

Positive extremes: Alemán, Díaz Ordaz, Salinas, Peña Nieto (IAE=+14, merit discounted). Negative extremes: AMLO (−6), Cárdenas (−4) — governed against elites, merit amplified.

Robust ranking with explicit uncertainty

Top 4: AMLO 7.77 · Cárdenas 7.74 · Peña Nieto 5.39 · Salinas 4.97. Bootstrap 95% CIs overlap between #1–2 and between #3–4: honest statistical ties.

Material reality panels

Six cross-validation indicators: life expectancy (41→75 years), infant mortality (230→13/1000), top 10% inequality, gross fixed capital formation, migration, and forestry capital.

Historical Ranking

Fifteen presidencies sorted by composite score v6.0 with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. Click any row to expand.

№	Presidency	Final	95% CI
01	AMLO2018–2024	7.77	7.6–7.9
02	Cárdenas1934–1940	7.74	7.6–7.9
03	Peña Nieto2012–2018	5.39	5.2–5.6
04	Salinas1988–1994	4.97	4.8–5.2
05	López Mateos1958–1964	4.31	4.2–4.4
06	Ruiz Cortines1952–1958	3.48	3.3–3.6
07	Zedillo1994–2000	3.38	3.2–3.6
08	Ávila Camacho1940–1946	3.35	3.2–3.5
09	Díaz Ordaz1964–1970	3.28	3.2–3.4
10	Fox2000–2006	2.62	2.4–2.8
11	De la Madrid1982–1988	2.47	2.2–2.7
12	Alemán1946–1952	2.46	2.4–2.6
13	López Portillo1976–1982	2.23	2.0–2.5
14	Echeverría1970–1976	1.86	1.7–2.0
15	Calderón2006–2012	1.63	1.4–1.8

Multipliers: tfp_adj ∈ [0.80, 1.20] · vol_adj ∈ [0.90, 1.10] · gini_adj ∈ [0.88, 1.12] · inv_adj ∈ [0.90, 1.10] · legislative_adj ∈ [0.88, 1.04]. Top-3 SET stable in 6/7 sensitivity scenarios.

Methodological Adjustments

Seven symmetric universal stages applied identically to all 15 presidents.

gini_adj = clamp(1 + 0.08 × (−Δgini_annual_pp), 0.88, 1.12)

President	Gini start	Gini end	Δ annual (pp)	gini_adj	Conf.
Cárdenas	0.580	0.555	-0.417	×1.033	E
Ávila Camacho	0.555	0.548	-0.117	×1.009	E
Alemán	0.548	0.551	+0.050	×0.996	E
Ruiz Cortines	0.551	0.544	-0.117	×1.009	E
López Mateos	0.544	0.540	-0.067	×1.005	E
Díaz Ordaz	0.540	0.577	+0.617	×0.951	E
Echeverría	0.577	0.535	-0.700	×1.056	E
López Portillo	0.535	0.510	-0.417	×1.033	E
De la Madrid	0.510	0.540	+0.500	×0.960	A
Salinas	0.540	0.541	+0.017	×0.999	V
Zedillo	0.541	0.506	-0.583	×1.047	V
Fox	0.506	0.506	+0.000	×1.000	V
Calderón	0.506	0.498	-0.133	×1.011	V
Peña Nieto	0.498	0.474	-0.400	×1.032	V
AMLO	0.474	0.440	-0.567	×1.045	V

Sensitivity — Ranking Robustness

Scenario	Top 3	Stable set
no gini	Cárdenas, AMLO, Peña Nieto	YES
no volatility	AMLO, Cárdenas, Peña Nieto	YES
no inv quality	Cárdenas, AMLO, Peña Nieto	YES
no tfp	Cárdenas, AMLO, Peña Nieto	YES
no legislative	AMLO, Cárdenas, Peña Nieto	YES
v5 baseline	Cárdenas, AMLO, Salinas	NO
bootstrap mean	AMLO, Cárdenas, Peña Nieto	YES

Robust ranking: 6/7 — YES

Scorecard by Variable

Performance of fifteen presidencies across nine dimensions. Green ≥7 · Yellow 4–7 · Orange 2–4 · Red <2.

President	PIB 17%	Pobreza 15%	Empleo 13%	Violencia 13%	Pobreza 9%	Activos 9%	Recaudación 8%	Activos 8%	Gasto 8%	Total
AMLO2018–2024	5.6	10.0	6.1	10.0	5.6	3.5	10.0	8.1	7.5	7.77
Cárdenas1934–1940	10.0	5.9	8.9	9.4	4.0	9.4	6.1	9.4	4.0	7.74
Peña Nieto2012–2018	6.4	4.2	8.2	0.0	10.0	1.7	9.8	4.4	1.9	5.39
Salinas1988–1994	7.6	1.2	10.0	3.5	4.3	5.1	0.0	5.2	5.6	4.97
López Mateos1958–1964	6.3	4.3	3.2	5.1	3.1	5.5	1.3	3.5	3.1	4.31
Ruiz Cortines1952–1958	6.4	5.0	3.5	2.9	2.7	4.8	0.1	0.9	0.0	3.48
Zedillo1994–2000	0.8	3.0	2.5	7.0	1.6	6.6	0.0	9.2	4.2	3.38
Ávila Camacho1940–1946	6.1	4.3	5.9	3.4	0.4	0.8	1.2	2.5	0.7	3.35
Díaz Ordaz1964–1970	4.4	5.2	2.8	3.2	4.7	0.2	2.0	2.9	2.2	3.28
Fox2000–2006	0.9	3.0	2.8	2.9	9.1	1.8	0.0	0.7	6.7	2.62
De la Madrid1982–1988	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.9	0.0	10.0	4.1	8.0	0.0	2.47
Alemán1946–1952	1.1	2.5	4.3	4.1	1.5	0.3	4.5	3.5	0.0	2.46
López Portillo1976–1982	9.3	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.9	0.0	1.9	2.23
Echeverría1970–1976	0.2	2.3	0.0	1.5	3.3	0.5	4.0	0.0	5.5	1.86
Calderón2006–2012	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0	2.9	1.2	10.0	0.0	6.4	1.63

Structural Charts

GDP by sexenio, z-score vs. LatAm-5, and composite ranking decomposition.

Real GDP — Average Annual Growth per Sexenio (%)

Cárdenas

4.5%

Ávila Camacho

6.1%

Alemán

5.8%

Ruiz Cortines

López Mateos

6.7%

Díaz Ordaz

6.9%

Echeverría

6.2%

López Portillo

6.4%

De la Madrid

0.1%

Salinas

3.9%

Zedillo

3.4%

Fox

2.2%

Calderón

1.9%

Peña Nieto

2.3%

AMLO

2.3%

Implicit red line: 2.5% = population growth. Sources: Maddison Project (pre-1960), INEGI SCN (1960-2024).

GDP Z-Score vs LatAm-5 — Contextual Adjustment

z = (vel_MEX − μ_LatAm5) / σ_LatAm5 · adj = clamp(1 + 0.30z, 0.70, 1.30)

President	MEX GDP%	μ LatAm	σ LatAm	z-score	Adjustment
Cárdenas	4.5%	1.18	0.23	+2.68	×1.200
Ávila Camacho	6.1%	1.68	0.25	+3.30	×1.200
Alemán	5.8%	1.64	0.52	+0.70	×1.174
Ruiz Cortines	6%	1.70	0.79	+1.02	×1.200
López Mateos	6.7%	1.94	0.39	+1.93	×1.200
Díaz Ordaz	6.9%	1.86	0.74	+0.86	×1.200
Echeverría	6.2%	1.44	1.35	-0.33	×0.918
López Portillo	6.4%	0.60	1.21	-0.08	×0.979
De la Madrid	0.1%	-0.70	1.23	-0.81	×0.800
Salinas	3.9%	1.64	1.51	-0.82	×0.800
Zedillo	3.4%	1.10	1.09	-0.73	×0.817
Fox	2.2%	1.66	0.66	-3.41	×0.800
Calderón	1.9%	2.16	0.71	-4.05	×0.800
Peña Nieto	2.3%	0.24	0.84	-0.29	×0.929
AMLO	0.9%	0.06	0.64	+0.69	×1.172

Power Map

Establishment alignment — elites, media, U.S., Church, armed forces, and organized crime. Governing WITH the establishment reduces merit (mult < 1.0). Governing AGAINST it amplifies merit.

President	Élites	Medios	Org.intern.	EE.UU.	Legislativo	Judicial	FF.AA.	Sindicatos	Iglesia	Crimen	Mult.
Cárdenas	-2	-2	-2	-2	+2	-1	+2	+2	-1	+0	–
Ávila Camacho	+1	+1	+1	+2	+2	+1	+2	+1	+1	+0	–
Alemán	+2	+2	+1	+2	+2	+2	+1	+1	+1	+0	–
Ruiz Cortines	+1	+1	+1	+1	+2	+1	+2	+1	+1	+0	–
López Mateos	+1	+1	+1	+1	+2	+1	+2	-1	+1	+0	–
Díaz Ordaz	+2	+1	+1	+2	+2	+2	+2	+1	+1	+0	–
Echeverría	-2	-1	-1	-2	+2	+2	+2	+2	-1	+0	–
López Portillo	+1	+2	+1	+1	+2	+2	+2	+1	+1	-1	–
De la Madrid	-1	+1	+1	+1	+2	+2	+2	-1	+1	-1	–
Salinas	+2	+2	+2	+2	+2	+2	+1	+1	+1	-1	–
Zedillo	-1	+0	+1	+2	-1	+1	+2	-1	+1	-1	–
Fox	+1	-1	+1	+1	-2	+0	+1	-1	+1	-1	–
Calderón	+1	-1	+1	+2	-1	+0	+2	-1	+1	-3	–
Peña Nieto	+2	+2	+2	+1	+2	+2	+2	+1	+1	-2	–
AMLO	-2	-2	-1	-1	+2	-2	+2	+1	+0	-3	–

Universal Legacy

Symmetric t+0→t+2 measurement of the successor's performance as a proxy for the inheritance received. Universal rule applied identically to all 15.

legacy_adj = clamp(1 + 0.10×z, 0.85, 1.15)

President	Successor	Legacy Score	z (vs 14)	legacy_adj
Cárdenas	Ávila Camacho	0.606	+1.11	×1.111
Ávila Camacho	Alemán	0.365	+0.47	×1.047
Alemán	Ruiz Cortines	0.520	+0.88	×1.088
Ruiz Cortines	López Mateos	0.621	+1.15	×1.115
López Mateos	Díaz Ordaz	0.215	+0.07	×1.007
Díaz Ordaz	Echeverría	-0.176	-0.97	×0.903
Echeverría	López Portillo	-0.469	-1.76	×0.850
López Portillo	De la Madrid	-0.307	-1.32	×0.868
De la Madrid	Salinas	0.527	+0.90	×1.090
Salinas	Zedillo	0.531	+0.91	×1.091
Zedillo	Fox	0.063	-0.34	×0.966
Fox	Calderón	-0.357	-1.46	×0.855
Calderón	Peña Nieto	0.029	-0.43	×0.957
Peña Nieto	AMLO	0.484	+0.78	×1.078
AMLO	—	—	+0.00	×1.000

Material Reality

Six hard indicators of lived reality — auxiliary cross-validation panel outside the composite score.

President	Expectativa de vida al nacer años	Mortalidad infantil (menores 5 años) por 1,000 nacidos vivos	Desigualdad de ingreso (share top 10%) % ingreso pre-tax apropiado por decil superior	Formación Bruta de Capital Fijo (% PIB) % PIB	Migración neta acumulada sexenal miles personas (positivo = ingreso neto)	Cobertura forestal (% territorio) % territorio nacional con cobertura forestal
AMLO	75.3	13.3	54.5	22.6	-300	33.5
Cárdenas	41.5^A	230^A	52^A	10^A	-50^A	50^E
Peña Nieto	75.1	14.2	56.8	21.9	-400	33.8
Salinas	72.2	39	62	21.9	-2700	35.2
López Mateos	58.6^A	110^A	58^A	17.3^A	-350^A	43.5^E
Ruiz Cortines	55.3^A	140^A	60^A	15.5^A	-250^A	45^E
Zedillo	74.1	29.5	60	23.7	-3400	34.6
Ávila Camacho	45.8^A	200^A	56^A	13^A	-120^A	48.5^E
Díaz Ordaz	61.4	90	57^A	20.1	-400^A	41.8^E
Fox	75.1	20.4	59	22.9	-3900	34.3
De la Madrid	70	51	60^E	19	-1800	36.5^E
Alemán	49.7^A	170^A	59^A	16^A	-180^A	46.8^E
López Portillo	67.7	62	58^E	25.4	-600^A	38.2^E
Echeverría	64.5	75	55^A	22.1	-500^A	40^E
Calderón	74.7	16.5	57.8	22.9	-500	34

Growth Accounting

GDP decomposition into capital, labor, and total factor productivity. ΔGDP = α·ΔK + (1−α)·ΔL + ΔTFP with α=0.35.

President	Period	Total GDP	Capital (K)	Labor (L)	TFP	Interpretation
Cárdenas	1934-1940	4.5%	+1.2	+1.5	+1.8	—
Ávila Camacho	1940-1946	6.1%	+1.8	+1.8	+2.5	Bono demanda USA WWII
Alemán	1946-1952	5.8%	+2.2	+1.6	+2.0	—
Ruiz Cortines	1952-1958	6%	+2.0	+1.5	+2.5	—
López Mateos	1958-1964	6.7%	+2.3	+1.7	+2.7	—
Díaz Ordaz	1964-1970	6.9%	+2.5	+1.9	+2.5	—
Echeverría	1970-1976	6.2%	+2.8	+2.4	+1.0	Crecimiento via endeudamiento
López Portillo	1976-1982	6.4%	+3.4	+2.5	+0.5	Boom petrolero financiado con deuda
De la Madrid	1982-1988	0.1%	-0.3	+2.1	-1.7	—
Salinas	1988-1994	3.9%	+1.5	+2.0	+0.4	—
Zedillo	1994-2000	3.4%	+1.2	+1.9	+0.3	—
Fox	2000-2006	2.2%	+1.0	+1.8	-0.6	—
Calderón	2006-2012	1.9%	+1.0	+1.6	-0.7	—
Peña Nieto	2012-2018	2.3%	+0.9	+1.4	+0.0	—
AMLO	2018-2024	2.3%	+0.6	+1.2	+0.5	Bono demográfico agotándose

Regional Gaps

Coefficient of variation across the 32 federal entities. The territorial fracture hidden by the national average.

President	End year	CV GDP per capita	CV Poverty	Conf.	Fracture level
Cárdenas	1940	—	—	ND	—
Ávila Camacho	1946	—	—	ND	—
Alemán	1952	—	—	ND	—
Ruiz Cortines	1958	—	—	ND	—
López Mateos	1964	—	—	ND	—
Díaz Ordaz	1970	82	—	A	severe
Echeverría	1976	75	—	A	severe
López Portillo	1982	68	—	A	moderate
De la Madrid	1988	72	—	A	severe
Salinas	1994	70.5	—	V	severe
Zedillo	2000	68.2	—	V	moderate
Fox	2006	64	35	V	moderate
Calderón	2012	62.5	32.8	V	moderate
Peña Nieto	2018	61	31.5	V	moderate
AMLO	2024	58.5	30.2	V	low

2024 extremes: Nuevo León (~USD 23,400) vs Chiapas (~USD 3,900) — ratio 6×

Source Triangulation

Systematic cross-check of every figure against multiple independent sources. HIGH flag if divergence > 10%.

Period	President	INEGI	WB WDI	IMF WEO	Maddison	Median	Div %	Flag
1982-1988	De la Madrid	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.15	100.0%	OK
1988-1994	Salinas	3.9	3.9	3.8	3.9	3.9	2.6%	OK
1994-2000	Zedillo	3.4	3.5	3.5	3.4	3.45	2.9%	OK
2000-2006	Fox	2.2	2.3	2.2	2.3	2.25	4.5%	OK
2006-2012	Calderón	1.9	2	1.9	2	1.95	5.3%	OK
2012-2018	Peña Nieto	2.3	2.4	2.3	2.4	2.35	4.3%	OK
2018-2024	AMLO	2.3	2.4	2.3	2.4	2.35	4.3%	OK

Methodology

Formulas, weights, and limitations documented honestly.

Raw Score (0-10)

Favorable velocity percentile × 6 (0–6) + acceleration percentile × 4 − 2 (−2 to +2) + Rev+ bonus (+2.0).

Dynamic Inertia

I_dyn = base_inertia × deterioration_level_mult. Levels: 1=drift(×1.0) → 5=spiral(×1.75). Violence has 2.8× inertia.

IDC — Contextual Difficulty Index

IDC = F1×0.25 + F2×0.20 + IAE_mult×0.35 + F4×0.20. IAE carries the largest weight (35%).

Successor Penalty

3 verified cases: Echeverría −8%, López Portillo −15%, Salinas −20%. Criteria: attributable, exploded in the first 2 years, IMF/CEPAL documentation.

Z-score LatAm-5

z = (vel_MEX − μ) / σ. adj = clamp(1 + 0.30z, 0.70, 1.30). Contextualizes against Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru.

Labor Quality Adjustment q_cal

q_cal = clamp(1 + 0.05·real_wage − 0.04·Δinf, 0.80, 1.20). Corrects employment using real wages + informality.

Absolute GDP Level Cap q_niv

cap_gdp = 10 × min(1, GDP%/4.0). 4% threshold = historical sexennial median. Only Peña Nieto reached the cap.

Bootstrap & Uncertainty

1,000 simulations with randomized weights → 95% CI. The ranking shows which positions are robust and which overlap.

Limitations and notes

• Pre-2008 poverty data: academic estimates NOT comparable with the CONEVAL multidimensional measurement.

• Health excluded from scoring: verified institutional volatility (Seguro Popular → INSABI → IMSS-Bienestar) caused swings of up to 18pp due to renaming.

• Privatizations: only count as intergenerational assets if they meet 3 criteria: real competition + market price + no bailout within 10 years.

• LatAm-5 context: pre-1960 series come from the Maddison Project with greater uncertainty (confidence="E").

• Labor quality / outsourcing: q_cal does not directly measure the precarization via outsourcing 2012–2021. No comparable historical series exists pre-REPSE.

• IAE_mult — documented adjustments: Cárdenas and AMLO deviate by ~0.02 from the standard formula.

Disclaimer

This evaluation combines verifiable quantitative data with informed judgment. Scores are not purely algorithmic. The results do not constitute professional advice. All methodology and source data are documented and reproducible.

Licensing & commercial use

This dashboard is open data. It is also a product: we license it to media, academia, consultancies and think tanks that want the same methodology applied to other countries, states or time series.

Administrations analyzed

1934-2024

Structural variables

GDP, poverty, violence, Gini, etc.

1,000

Bootstrap simulations

For confidence intervals

CC-BY 4.0

Open data

Code MIT

Business & commercial impact

The methodology (regional Z-score, contextual difficulty index, bootstrap, synthetic control) is reusable for other contexts: elections in other LATAM countries, state/municipal performance, corporate comparatives, any sector with public time series.

Open data

$0download

CSV + code free.

Full dataset CSV
MIT calculation code
CC-BY 4.0 attribution
Academic & editorial use

Licensed dashboard

$2,400/ year

Embed + your branding.

Embed on your domain
White-label branding
Quarterly updates
Automated PDF exports
Commercial use (media / consultancies)

Custom analog

$18,000 – 65,000per engagement

Your country / state / sector.

Full data engineering
Replicable dashboard
Methodological paper
Executive workshop
Hosting + maintenance 12 mo

Typical buyers: national media during election cycles, public-policy think tanks, country-risk consultancies, academic programs in political science and economics.